Pakistan's High Commissioner in Singapore

The High Commission of Pakistan in Singapore hosted an event with Rabia Shafiq. Singapore might be a downgrade for Mrs. Shafiq, who’s lived in Chicago, Oxford, Paris, and Ankara while speaking fluent English, French, and Urdu. Even most of the questions were provincial, but I can’t discuss “off-the-record” Q&As. Let’s just say if you praise Pakistan for promoting women, you should know India and Pakistan have already achieved female prime ministers (Indira Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto), progress eluding both Singapore and the United States.1

As has been the case with Pakistan, relations with India loomed large. Obviously, I cannot discuss the Q&A session, so please do not attribute any of the following statements or opinions to Mrs. Shafiq. As I devoured the kheer (rice pudding)—one tray with almonds, one without—two men approached me and answered the more controversial questions Mrs. Shafiq deflected.

The formal portion of the session involved Mrs. Shafiq promoting Pakistan’s halal food exports, its new simplified tourist visa application, and its appeal to outsourcing firms (see also SIFC). Afterwards, the focus shifted to India, China, and the United States. 

Some background: Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally of the United States. This week, White House spokesperson John Kirby invited controversy by saying Pakistan has never been a “tactical ally of the United States.” India’s anti-Pakistan mainstream relished the out-of-context soundbite, but every military intelligence worker knew he meant Pakistan and the United States lack a formal defense treaty.

Each security relationship has a hierarchy, and in the West, NATO “All for One, One for All” membership is the highest tier. To get there, you purchase weapons within the alliance and accept particular technological standards, which is easy if you’re nowhere near Russia or China and don’t need to hedge your bets.2 Unfortunately, being near oil-rich Russia, rising China, oil-rich Iran, rising India, and Afghanistan means nothing easy comes for Pakistan. As a result, the world’s greatest security soap opera is always playing out between police, politicians, the ISI, the military, and resistance groups once funded by the West as hedges against Iran, the Soviet Union, and others.

Some view the ISI the same way as the CIA: a “deep state” operating in the shadows, more powerful than even the military and the president. In reality, the ISI, concerned with terrorism, needs influence in Afghanistan and must therefore work with Iran and other anti-Western entities. Obviously, such relationships do not endear the ISI to Pakistan’s military, which is largely funded by the United States and which itself lacks options in Afghanistan post-withdrawal. Pakistan’s complexity3 is mind-boggling, and though its military depends on Western aid, Pakistan’s insignificant oil and gas reserves and Westerners’ failure to establish influence on Pakistani soil mean the West lacks recourse if Pakistan’s top brass nod their heads then do not follow American orders.4

In any case, Western politicians and evangelicals wouldn’t know how to handle Pakistan if they tried their darndest.5 Their media is currently obsessed with a Likud-Hamas ceasefire, but at any point in time, Pakistan’s military and ISI must contend with dozens of ceasefire agreements within its borders. According to Sanaullah Khan of Dawn.com,

“1,566 terrorism incidents occurred in the [first] 10 months [of 2024] with 948 in KP, 532 in Balochistan, 24 in Sindh, 10 in Punjab and two in the Islamabad Capital Territory... the incidents led to a total of 924 martyrdoms and 2,121 injured… data indicates that law enforcement agencies have been primarily targeted by terrorists across Pakistan during the last ten months.”

Not surprisingly, India has shut down cross-border trade and even cross-border buses on the “spine” separating itself from Pakistan. It continues to occupy Muslim-majority Kashmir, called “the world’s biggest jail” by many Pakistanis. If American-supported occupation in the Gaza Strip generated a 9/11 response, it’s unclear whether India’s leaders understand the long-term risks they face in Kashmir.

The match that could light the powder keg no one wants to see explode is political prisoner Imran Khan. Blessed with charisma no one in Pakistan or India can match and an intelligence firmly on the side of Pakistani civilians, Khan has refused to “bend the knee” to Pakistan’s American-supported military leaders. His fate remains unclear, but the world is watching.

After Mrs. Shafiq recommended The Glassworker (2024), I gave her a children’s book with a short note I’ll share here.

2025’s new paradigm: 

Information will be free,
Analysis expensive, and
Objectivity impossible.

I should have added, “Good luck.” 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (January 17, 2025 from Singapore)

1. Countries influenced by the Soviet Union will usually be more gender equitable for anything statistically measurable. Russians genuinely believe women are as capable as men because their harsh climate required all available hands, and their relatively low population combined with male wartime casualties meant wartime efforts could not succeed without female participation. If you want a woman as physically capable as you, you’re better off visiting countries near Russia, but if you prefer lots of talk about feminism, go West.

2. Even Türkiye, a NATO member, buys Russian materiel.

3. No analogy can capture the complexity perfectly, but try this: 

Your son is a mid-level drug dealer, and you’re also worried about a glowing suitcase in his room. You could evict him from your home, but he knows lots of small-time dealers, all of whom want his territory and are more than willing to use violence. Your son despises you and is looking for an excuse to unleash the small-time dealers against you. So you keep giving your son an ample allowance, hoping one day he will love you or at least gain a more respectable profession. Meanwhile, your son, hardened by decades of successful defenses against hot-headed thugs and excluded from the formal economy because you chose to favor your neighbor’s daughter, isn’t moving into law or medicine—he’s decided to upgrade from drugs to weapons, and if the gorgeous blond Svletana down the street marries him, he might become unstoppable.

4. You can almost hear the post-9/11 conversations: 

“Find Usama bin Ladin.” 

“Sure.” [We know his approximate location but can’t do anything until we buy off every single person in his entire area. Otherwise, we ourselves will suffer a 9/11. So how do we buy time and maximize funding opportunities?] 

“Did you find him yet?” 

“We’re working on it. Where’s the next tranche of aid?” 

[Ukraine has done a better job at this dangerous game than anyone expected.]

5. Allowing anti-Islamic pundits to infect the media and then your political circles has consequences.