All Roads Lead through Pennsylvania on November 5

According to political experts in Singapore, the Senate is expected to turn Republican while the presidential race will be determined by Pennsylvania's electoral votes, not the popular vote. 

Steven Okun, Emily Drew from Davidson College, and Elvin Lim from Singapore Management University gave short lectures on 2024's presidential race. 

Steven Okun, who served under Bill Clinton, was the most impressive speaker. 

Not many people can analyze hard data perfectly and still see the big picture, but Okun's specialty seems to be clairvoyance. Some of his comments are below: 

There are millions of expats, 75% are liberal-leaning, and 80% [of them] don't vote. 

"Americans are p*issed off." [Thus favoring the candidate or party most able to distance himself or herself from existing policies.]

"Harris needs to show she's the change candidate."

"How do you reach low propensity voters?"

"White college-educated men are 2024's soccer moms." [Referring to the target group from Bill Clinton's successful 1996 election]  

"Almost a guarantee that Senate will flip" to the GOP. 

"We judge every country based on trade deficits." 

The Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, 597 U.S. 215 (2022), held abortion rights should be left to states, not the federal government. Okun believes female voters are upset because the decision removed an established Constitutional right to abortion. [Trump did himself no favors in the debate on this issue.] 

Both Okun and Professor Lim agree this election comes down to Pennsylvania. 

Professor Lim used a pattern-based approach to prove American presidential elections have been relatively stable and predictable until recently. For example, from 1960 to 2016, the path to the White House always included Ohio. As a baseline, he sees Kamala Harris with 226 Electoral College votes and Donald Trump with 219. Surprisingly, Lim sees Wisconsin as solidly "blue" aka Democrat. He also thinks "race baiting" only works on the GOP side, a sobering opinion when both GOP candidates in 2024 are white men who attended Ivy League universities. 

Professor Drew spoke about disinformation but did not present new information. She had one interesting slide that indicated even programs designed to catch deepfakes "struggled to tell what was real." 

Personally, I feel the result pleasing the most number of elites will be Harris in the White House and a GOP-controlled Congress. In short, everyone who lived through the Bill Clinton era wants a re-do. I also see the most contentious states being Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. 

© Matthew Rafat (September 11, 2024 from Singapore) 

Disclosure: I'm Californian and won't be voting in this election.